Forecasters Predict A 'dry' La Nina

The Age

Thursday September 13, 2007

By Chee Chee Leung and Orietta Guerrera

THE weather bureau has given its strongest indication yet that this year will be classified as a La Nina year - the opposite of the drought-inducing El Nino weather event.

The bureau said yesterday that all indicators except one suggested - should they continue to year's end - that "2007 will be referred to as a La Nina".

But the bureau said this year's La Nina was not likely to produce the substantial rain that Australians hoped for.

Climate meteorologist Grant Beard said La Nina events were usually established by the end of winter, with widespread above-average rain across eastern Australia. If a La Nina developed in spring, he said, it would be late by historical standards and unlikely to produce the usual wetter-than-average conditions.

Mr Beard said the seasonal outlook did not suggest there would be above-average rainfall.

Parts of western and southern Victoria have as little as a 35 per cent chance of spring rainfall above the long-term average. It is a devastating outlook for farmers, including grain growers in the Wimmera and Mallee who desperately need above-average rainfall this spring to save their crops after a poor winter. They have received little rain in the first fortnight of spring.

At Geoff Nalder's property near Swan Hill, only four millimetres has fallen since a low pressure system moved in on Monday. Mr Nalder, the Victorian Farmers Federation grains group president, said the drizzle was welcome, but it was far from enough to fulfil earlier predictions of a record wheat crop.

"The next fortnight is critical for us," he said. "We need to have decent rain come through by the end of the month, otherwise the yields will be down considerably."

© 2007 The Age

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